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Distressed Debt Investing

This blog will try to dissect distressed debt investing, up and down the capital structure. We will look at current distressed debt situations, try to explain the ins and outs of how decisions are made in the distressed debt world, probably rant a few times about positions that are working against me, and hopefully enlighten some readers.

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10.20.2017

Puerto Rico Benefit: Join Reorg Research and the Distressed Debt Community Tuesday Oct 24th in NYC

Hey everyone – Like all of you, I have watched in horror as Hurricane Maria has devastated Puerto Rico. This disaster and its aftermath hits particularly close to home, as Reorg has two employees and numerous colleagues and friends who live on the island with their families and face a long journey back to normalcy.

9.08.2017

Did You Know? Reorg Launched an M A, antitrust and special situations using Reorg’s formula of amazing reporters, analysts and lawyers combined with innovative technology.

  • The COL/UTX divestiture package will most likely be in the range of $300M as United CEO Gregory Hayes stated in an interview with CNBC and the $850M divestiture limit in the merger agreement. While this is small relative to the $30B deal value, the product lines involved will most likely touch DoD contracts raising single source supplier concerns for critical systems.
  • The antitrust/contracting concerns will be seen across a number of small verticals within the aircraft system software space, specifically flight bags , that aggregate system data for flight crews. These antitrust concerns will come down to issues of substitutable competitive products and how important system integration is to the final customer.
  • Honeywell is the primary competitor for United Technologies across all verticals including the verticals that overlap with Rockwell. There are also smaller component manufacturers that compete for government contracts, and should reduce antitrust concerns on overlap.
  • The termination date for the deal is September 4, 2018, which can be extended by six months to March 2019. Projected close for the transaction is 3Q2018. Regulatory scrutiny around the divestiture package could extend the review timeline past the 3Q projected close.

Avionics systems appear to be the primary overlapping verticals, specifically electronic flight bag systems, for the combined COL/UTX. While there are many substitutable components among these systems, there are limited fully integrated systems available that cover the entire aircraft the way the United systems do. This will raise both competition concerns and defense readiness concerns, which will be complicated to mitigate, and could extend the review timeline.


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